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The not so bright future of Hitech in Silicon Valley
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And I had secretly thought Karl Marx would find a way to show me a sunny future.
Priceless. Too bad it’s the sour reality.From Karl:
GM management “skills”
To sflover:
Thanks for the sunny forecast :-) Just curious, if you think everything is going downhill from here, what do you think we should do?
If you are into maximizing $ (or Rupie) and want all that, then the best is make sure you have good tools (health, flexibile brain and good education). And I think it would be best to move to one of those countries, really. It’s a big step and only few will do it but it is probably the right thing to do. I think I posted some time in the past I know of Chinese ppl who currently make TONS of money profiting from the consumption bubble in China - which according to friends will last another 5 - 10 years.
Before you say I’m full of something suggesting to move to another continent. That’s exactly what all your Indian coworkers have done in the past 10 years. They didn’t come here because their life in India sucked or because they want to be closer to Disneyland. They came here for $ opportunity. I’ve heard several times phrases like:
‘Once I have saved xxx Dollars, I’ll rack up all my credit cards for an extra $100,000 and then I’m getting out of here’The xxx number has been increasing over the past years :D
If you’re not willing to go to India or China (reasons follow), then just stay here and hope that you survive somehow. I made this worst case estimate the other day and figured I could retire now with $2750 / month of rental income or a similar amount if invested. (Funny coincidence that the return from having rentals is within $50 of investing in CD accouts, right?)
About the reasons why one would not go to China:
- too old and too unflexible. I turn 40 this summer. I’ve moved from Germany to California when I was 31. I’m not doing it a second time.
- cultural shock. Germany and USA is already one. I cannot imagine how big the difference for a caucasian coming to China would be. Again age plays a role.
Another note. A few years ago - during the Clinton years - I read an article about the American century. The article explained how there has been a Spanish century, a British one and that the 20th century would historically be considered the American century. The article also elaborated how each phase had to come to an end. Karthago, Rome, …, Washington. Nothing is eternal. Did you read about the Chinese weapons program? They completely rebuild their army from a man-power oriented one to a high-tech army.
In 30 years - if not earlier - labor in China will be more expensive than here and things will change again. I might just live long enough.
For the full discussion, go here:
http://patrick.net/wp/?p=12#comments
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